Wednesday, February 23, 2011

The Post With All Of 2011′s Tablet and iPad Market Forecasts (Charts!) | B2C Marketing Insider

The Post With All Of 2011′s Tablet and iPad Market Forecasts (Charts!)

Sometimes I feel like I’m back in my high school-era data entry jobs. I’ve collected and charted all of the publicly-available forecasts on the tablet market for 2011 and beyond. Note: This is up to date as of February 22, 2011 (though please notify me of any new/missing forecasts).

It’s also an update to an earlier post I made last November that ranked analyst forecasts for 2010 in order of bullishness.

As I did with my iPad Enterprise & School Deployment List, I may eventually open up the entire Google Spreadsheet for public viewing. In the meantime, here are some charts for your visualization pleasure.

Wall Street’s 2011 Tablet Market Forecasts

Tech Research Firm Forecasts for 2011 Tablet Market

A few things jump out:

  1. ABI Research’s Jeff Orr, who I respect a lot, has the most dour forecast by far.
  2.  The raging bull award goes to FBR Capital’s Craig Berger, who had the cojones to make his 70 million forecast almost 4 months ago. Second place goes to Rhoda Alexander of iSuppli.
  3. I had a theory that well-known analysts or those from the big banks or market research firms would be incentivized to put out cautious numbers for fear of being burnt. With Apple blowing out its Christmas iPad sales forecasts, perhaps they now fear being burnt for being too cautious. See Gartner, iSuppli, Goldman Sachs, Barclays, Morgan Stanley, who are all on the high side.
  4. Gene Munster of Piper Jaffray is one of the better-known Apple and iPad bulls. Yet, his latest 2011 forecast for the overall tablet market puts him on the low-end of the market.
  5. There’s no noticeable difference between the average of forecasts between the banking and tech analysts. Both are about 50 million for 2011.
  6. Similarly, there’s no noticeable pattern of forecasts increasing over time, as there was with the 2010 forecasts (when analysts were playing catch-up to the iPad’s strong demand).

And here’s the iPad market forecasts for 2011:

Some notes:

  1. The iPad forecasts fit my theory that the raging bulls will be the smaller, lesser-known analysts/firms with less to lose: Wedge Partners, DRAMexchange, Caris & Co.
  2. Belying his reputation as Apple’s cheerleader on Wall Street, Gene Munster actually has the lowest iPad forecast for 2011. Maybe we should start calling him a Google Bull?

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